I thought some more about what I said about war. John Brunner might argue through Chad Mulligan that the world wars “just happened” and no one intended them.
But the various players did intend war. They didn’t intend the war they got; that spun out of control. But when Kaiser Wilhelm signed off on the attack against France under the Schlieffen Plan, he very well knew he was starting a war. There is no doubt that the start of that war was volitional on the part of the politicians and military men involved.
And Hitler? When he entered into a treaty with the USSR to divide Poland, did he not intend war? He invaded Poland just nine days later, making clear that was always his intention. Moreover, his preparations were well under way when the treaty was signed. Again, the war didn’t go the way he expected, but there is no doubt that the start of that war was volitional.
I got some pushback from a beta reader that murder isn’t a good analogy. But I think it is. Murder is by definition volitional. If Abel causes the death of Baker, this could be murder, manslaughter, or negligence. But it’s only murder if Abel intended to cause the death, or at least intended to commit a felony that then caused the death. Murder doesn’t “just happen” like weather, even though you can forecast a statistical probability of murder. And I contend the same is true of war.
You could point out all the societal stresses and strains that led up to Hitler’s being able to start a war, but you could also point out all the personal stresses and strains that lead up to a murder. The murder and the start of the war are still both volitional.